Arizona COVID-19 update: State adds about 14,900 new cases as omicron drives up infections

Arizona COVID-19 cases are climbing rapidly as the highly contagious omicron variant spreads, and hospitals remain strained with virus and other patients. 

On Friday, Arizona reported 14,888 new COVID-19 cases and 30 new known deaths.

More people tested positive for COVID-19 in Arizona on Jan. 3 than any day previously during the pandemic, according to state data. 

COVID-19 and other hospitalizations have remained high in recent weeks, with some hospitals operating near or over capacity.

Emergency room visits from patients with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 spiked on  Wednesday to a pandemic-record high of 2,371 visits statewide and remained at a high 2,312 visits on Thursday.

On Thursday, 2,562 patients were hospitalized across Arizona for known or suspected COVID-19, and just 95 ICU beds were available across the state. Hospital metrics were generally up from last week, state data shows.

The total of known deaths in the state was 24,616 as of Friday. The state surpassed 24,000 deaths on Dec. 28, 17 days after it reached 23,000 deaths.

Arizona's seven-day COVID-19 death rate per 100,000 people ranked fourth in the nation out of all states and territories as of Thursday, after ranking first and second last month, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Next steps:Omicron is exceptionally contagious. Here's what to do if you test positive

State data on breakthrough infections 

The state last month began publicly posting data on breakthrough COVID-19 infections, and state officials say the data so far underscores the effectiveness of the vaccine.

The vast majority of cases, hospitalizations and deaths are among people not fully vaccinated.

There have been 109,516 confirmed vaccine breakthrough cases among the more than 3.9 million fully vaccinated people in Arizona, as of Jan. 3. Of those cases, 852 have involved deaths, according to preliminary data from the state, which works out to a breakthrough death rate among fully vaccinated people of about 0.02%.

State data shows that unvaccinated people in Arizona had a 4.9 times greater risk of testing positive for COVID-19 and a 31.1 times greater risk of dying from COVID-19 in November compared with fully vaccinated people.

Case rates and death reports

Previous days this past week saw the following new case reports: 8,220 on Jan. 1;  701 on Jan. 2; 14,192 on Jan. 3; 7,212 on Jan. 4; 7,749 on Jan. 5; and 10,679 on Jan. 6. Some of the Jan. 3 reported case total reflected processing delays from New Year's Day, according to state health officials. 

Death reports for the past week were: 125 on Jan. 1; one on Jan. 2; zero on Jan. 3; 154 on Jan. 4; 61 on Jan. 5; and 16 on Jan. 6.

The Arizona Republic generally recaps the state's daily numbers online in a COVID-19 updates blog and in a weekly recap story online on Thursdays or Fridays and in the newspaper on Sundays. 

Arizona's seven-day case rate per 100,000 people ranked among the lowest among all states and territories on Thursday — 46th — after ranking first and second for much of January and then lower since, according to the CDC's COVID-19 Data Tracker. Last week, it ranked 43rd. 

The omicron variant is overwhelmingly dominant in Arizona, according to Dr. Joshua LaBaer, executive director of Arizona State University's Biodesign Institute. More than 90% of the positive COVID-19 samples ASU is sequencing are positive for the omicron variant, he said. 

The state's seven-day average for new reported COVID-19 cases was at 9,092 on Friday, compared with 4,325 a week ago and 2,946 two weeks ago. The average had reached as high as about 9,800 in January 2021, according to state data.

Percent positivity, which refers to the percentage of COVID-19 diagnostic tests that are positive, varies somewhat based on how it's measured. It's been higher in recent weeks, a sign of more community spread.

For most of November, Arizona's percent positivity for COVID-19 testing was at 12-13%. It was 11% for the week of Dec. 5, 11% for the week of Dec. 12, 13% for the week of Dec. 19 and 22% for the week of Dec. 26. It’s at 28% so far for the week of Jan. 2. The percentages are now for all diagnostic tests conducted, rather than for unique individuals tested, following a change to the state dashboard.

Johns Hopkins University calculates Arizona's seven-day moving average of percent positives at 16.3% as of Friday. It shows the state's percent positivity peaked at 24.2% in Dec. 2020. 

A positivity rate of 5% or less is considered a good benchmark that the disease's spread is under control.

The state's overall COVID-19 death and case rates since Jan. 21, 2020, still remain among the worst in the country.

The COVID-19 death rate in Arizona since the pandemic began is 337 deaths per 100,000 people as of Thursday, according to the CDC, putting it fourth in the country in a state ranking that separates New York City from New York state. The U.S. average is 249 deaths per 100,000 people as of Thursday, according to the CDC.

New York City has the highest death rate, at 424 deaths per 100,000 people, followed by Mississippi and Alabama.

Arizona surpassed 24,000 known deaths on Dec. 28 after passing 23,000 deaths on Dec. 11, 22,000 deaths on Nov. 23, 21,000 deaths on Oct. 27, and 20,000 deaths on Oct. 1.

The state exceeded 10,000 reported known deaths on Jan. 9. Arizona's first known death from the disease occurred in mid-March 2020.

Many of the reported deaths occurred days or weeks before because of reporting delays and death certificate matching.

A total of 1,445,129 COVID-19 cases had been identified across the state as of Friday. 

Hospitals remain under stress

The Arizona data dashboard shows 94% of all ICU beds and 94% of all inpatient beds in the state were in use on Thursday, with 36% of ICU beds and 29% of non-ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients. Statewide, 95 ICU beds and 483 non-ICU beds were available.

The number of patients hospitalized in Arizona for known or suspected COVID-19 cases was at 2,562 on Thursday, an increase from last week. Two weeks ago that number was at 2,440. The record was 5,082 inpatients on Jan. 11. The highest number of COVID-19 hospitalizations in a single day during the summer 2020 surge was 3,517 on July 13.

The number of patients with suspected or known COVID-19 in ICUs across Arizona was at 608 on Thursday, compared with 609 last week and 684 three weeks prior, still far below the record high of 1,183 on Jan. 11. During the summer surge in mid-July 2020, ICU beds in use for COVID-19 peaked at 970.

Arizonans with confirmed and suspected COVID-19 on ventilators was at 364 on Thursday. The record-high 821 was reached on Jan. 13. During the summer 2020 surge, July 16 was the peak day for ventilator use, with 687 patients.

Thursday saw 2,312 patients in Arizona emergency rooms for COVID-19, which is close to the record high from the day prior, when 2,371 positive or suspected COVID-19 patients were seen in emergency departments across the state.

Vaccination update

Arizonans aged 5 and older are eligible to get the Pfizer vaccine, while the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines are approved for those 18 and older. Many individuals are eligible for booster doses, too. 

The state reported more than 4.7 million people in Arizona — about 66% of the total state population — had received at least one vaccine dose as of Friday, with nearly 4 million residents fully vaccinated against COVID-19. The state’s data dashboard now separates out doses administered to Arizona residents versus all doses administered in the state.

Arizona's rate of fully vaccinated people out of the total population is 57.4%, which is behind the national rate of 62.4%, according to the CDC as of Thursday. 

Out of the vaccine-eligible population, people ages 5 and older, 61% of those in Arizona are fully vaccinated, compared with 66.3% at the national level, CDC data shows.

Health experts strongly recommend booster shots for those eligible, especially with the omicron variant spreading. About 34.3% of fully vaccinated Arizonans over the age of 18 had received a booster shot as of Thursday, below the national rate of 38.3% for that same age group.

What to know about Friday's numbers

Reported cases in Arizona: 1,445,129.

Daily cases are grouped by the date they are reported to the state health department, not by the date the tests were administered.

Cases by county: 914,958 in Maricopa; 180,332 in Pima; 92,729 in Pinal; 45,723 in Yuma; 40,523 in Mohave; 37,499 in Yavapai; 29,888 in Coconino; 28,101 in Navajo; 20,725 in Cochise; 16,770 in Apache; 12,555 in Gila; 10,877 in Santa Cruz; 9,132 in Graham; 3,772 in La Paz; and 1,543 in Greenlee, according to state numbers. 

The rate of cases per 100,000 people since the pandemic began is highest in Navajo County, followed by Graham, Apache, Gila and Maricopa counties, per state data. The rate in Navajo County is 24,907 cases per 100,000 people. By comparison, the U.S. average rate since the pandemic began is 17,439 cases per 100,000 people as of Thursday, according to the CDC.

The Navajo Nation reported 42,324 cases and 1,592 confirmed deaths as of Thursday. The Navajo Nation includes parts of Arizona, New Mexico and Utah.

The Arizona Department of Corrections reported 12,782 inmates had tested positive for COVID-19 as of Friday, including 2,286 in Tucson, 2,117 in Eyman, 2,014 in Yuma, 1,343 in Lewis and 1,163 in Douglas; 52,238 inmates statewide have been tested. A total of 3,564 prison staff members have self-reported testing positive, the department said. Fifty-six incarcerated people in Arizona have been confirmed to have died of COVID-19, with nine additional deaths under investigation.

Race/ethnicity is unknown for 16% of all COVID-19 cases statewide, but of positive cases during the past six months, the breakdown is 42% white, 26% Hispanic or Latino, 4% Native American, 4% Black and 2% Asian/Pacific Islander.

The race/ethnicity breakdown of cases since the start of the pandemic in 2020 has been 40% white, 29% Hispanic or Latino, 5% American Indian, 4% Black and 2% Asian/Pacific Islander. Race/ethnicity of positive cases since the onset of the pandemic is unknown in 16% of cases, and listed as other race in 6% of cases.

Of those who have tested positive in Arizona since the start of the pandemic, about 20% were younger than 20, 43% were 20-44, 14% were 45-54, 11% were 55-64 and 12% were age 65 or older.

Laboratories had completed 15,937,526 total diagnostic tests for COVID-19 as of Friday, 10.3% of which have come back positive. That number includes both PCR and antigen testing. Percent positivity is at 28% so far for the week of Jan. 2. The state numbers leave out data from labs that do not report electronically.

The state Health Department includes probable cases as anyone with a positive antigen test, another type of test to determine infection. Antigen tests (not related to antibody tests) use a nasal swab or another fluid sample to test for current infection. Results are typically produced within 15 minutes.

A positive antigen test result is considered very accurate, but there's an increased chance of false-negative results, Mayo Clinic officials said. They say a doctor may recommend a PCR (polymerase chain reaction) test to confirm a negative antigen test result.

Arizona as of Thursday had the 15th highest overall case rate in the country since Jan. 21, 2020. Ahead of Arizona in cases per 100,000 people since the pandemic began are Rhode Island, North Dakota, Tennessee, Alaska, New York City, South Dakota, Florida, Utah, Wyoming, Kentucky, Wisconsin, Delaware, South Carolina and Arkansas, according to the CDC.

Arizona's infection rate is 19,503 cases per 100,000 people, according to the CDC. The national average is 17,439 cases per 100,000 people, although the rates in states hard hit early in the pandemic may be an undercount because of a lack of available testing in March and April 2020.

Reported deaths in Arizona: 24,616

Deaths by county: 13,867 in Maricopa; 3,216 in Pima; 1,339 in Pinal; 1,201 in Mohave; 991 in Yuma; 983 in Yavapai; 761 in Navajo; 545 in Apache; 476 in Cochise; 420 in Coconino; 314 in Gila; 206 in Santa Cruz; 159 in Graham; 110 in La Paz; and 28 in Greenlee.

People age 65 and older make up 17,392 of the 24,616 deaths, or 71%. About 16% of deaths were among people 55-64 years old, 8% were 45-54 and 5% were 20-44 years old.

While race/ethnicity was unknown for 6% of deaths, 52% of those who died were white, 27% were Hispanic or Latino, 7% were Native American, 3% were Black and 1% were Asian/Pacific Islander, the state data shows.

The global death toll as of Friday was 5,475,245. The U.S. had the highest death count of any country in the world, at 834,146, followed by Brazil at 619,654 and India at 483,178, according to Johns Hopkins University.

Arizona's 24,616 deaths represent about 2.9% of COVID-19 deaths in the United States.

Republic reporter Stephanie Innes contributed to this article.

Reach the reporter at Alison.Steinbach@arizonarepublic.com or at 602-444-4282. Follow her on Twitter @alisteinbach.

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